Module II· Football Field & SensitivitiesIntermediate
Question
How do you show multiple sensitivity in a comps valuation?
Answer
Multiple sensitivity
the change in EV across the multiple range. Standard: 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile of the comp set, pivoting on the median multiple. 2D variant: add an EBITDA forecast range as a second axis to reflect forecast risk.
Deep diveShow more details
Example 1 — 1D multiple sensitivity
Inputs:
- NTM EBITDA multiple range: 25th percentile 8.2x / median 9.5x / 75th percentile 11.1x
- Target EBITDA (base case): $100m
Calculation:
```
25th pct: $100 × 8.2 = $820m
Median: $100 × 9.5 = $950m (pivot)
75th pct: $100 × 11.1 = $1,110m
```
Example 2 — 2D multiple × EBITDA sensitivity
Inputs:
- EBITDA forecast range: $90 / $100 / $110m
- Multiple range: 8.5x / 9.5x / 10.5x
Calculation (EV in $m):
```
EBITDA \ Mult. 8.5x 9.5x 10.5x
$90 765 855 945
$100 850 950 1,050
$110 935 1,045 1,155
```
Pitch tip
'Range $765m–$1,155m reflects both peer multiple dispersion and EBITDA uncertainty — point estimate $950m at median multiple and base-case EBITDA.'