Module II· Trading ComparablesIntermediate
Question
What is the difference between spot and forward multiples, and which should you use?
Answer
Spot multiple (LTM)
current market cap / EV against LTM EBITDA — a trailing multiple. Forward multiple (NTM, FY+1, FY+2): market cap / EV against forecast EBITDA — a forward multiple. For growth companies, forward multiples are lower than trailing (because EBITDA grows). IB standard: the NTM multiple is the primary benchmark. Rationale: the market prices in future cash flows, so a forward multiple is 'apples-to-apples'. LTM only as a sanity check. Pitfall: the NTM multiple rests on consensus EPS forecasts — after recent earnings misses or guidance cuts, consensus can be stale.
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Pitch tip
On the multiples slide, always show LTM and NTM side by side, referenced to the current consensus date.