Module II· Trading ComparablesIntermediate
Question

What is the difference between spot and forward multiples, and which should you use?

Answer

current market cap / EV against LTM EBITDA — a trailing multiple. Forward multiple (NTM, FY+1, FY+2): market cap / EV against forecast EBITDA — a forward multiple. For growth companies, forward multiples are lower than trailing (because EBITDA grows). IB standard: the NTM multiple is the primary benchmark. Rationale: the market prices in future cash flows, so a forward multiple is 'apples-to-apples'. LTM only as a sanity check. Pitfall: the NTM multiple rests on consensus EPS forecasts — after recent earnings misses or guidance cuts, consensus can be stale.

Deep diveShow more details

On the multiples slide, always show LTM and NTM side by side, referenced to the current consensus date.