Module II· Special Situations ValuationAdvanced
Question
How do you value stranded assets in a structurally declining sector (e.g. fossil fuels, print media)?
Answer
Valuing stranded assets:
- A 'run-off' model instead of a classic DCF — an explicit forecast period to cessation, with no terminal value (or a negative terminal).
- Model the decline curves: typically 5–15% volume decline p.a. in structurally shrinking sectors.
- Cost stranding: fixed costs don't scale linearly with volume → the margin decline accelerates.
- Terminal state: liquidation value or an ESG-driven forced closure.
- Real-options element: model conversion options (e.g. a coal plant → a hydrogen hub) as an embedded call option.
Deep diveShow more details
Examples
utility coal assets under a national coal phase-out (e.g. Germany to 2038), print-media targets, tobacco historically. ESG specifics: a carbon-pricing trajectory (the EU ETS path) as a cash-outflow driver.
Pitch tip
'For stranded-asset valuations, 'time to closure' is the main factor — a 5-year closure halves the value versus a 15-year run-off path. Junior trap: a standard DCF with a constant terminal overstates by 50–100%.'