Module II· DCF — Terminal ValueAdvanced
Question
How do you normalize margins for the terminal year of a cyclical industrial company?
Answer
Mid-cycle margin method
a 7–10-year average of EBIT margins that covers at least one full economic cycle.
Example, cyclical steel producer
```
Year: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025e
Margin: −2% 4% −5% 12% 18% 8% 5% 4%
7-year average: 5.7%
```
A trailing-twelve-month margin (5%) would also be acceptable. Don't use forecast Year 5 directly if the forecast hits the next upswing — otherwise a pro-cyclical bias. Normalize capex analogously via mid-cycle capex / revenue.
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Pitch tip
for cyclical targets in a pitch, always 'we use mid-cycle margins of X% for terminal value, computed as 7-year historical average'. The senior looks closely at this.