Module II· Valuation — Regional NotesAdvanced
Question

How do you model a defined-benefit pension obligation profile over 30 years for a valuation?

Answer

Pension cash-flow model:

  • Split the population: active members (still accruing), deferred vested (left with a preserved entitlement), pensioners (in payment).
  • Cash-flow projection: active members generate future service cost (working lifetime). Deferred vested: no service cost, but indexation. Pensioners: ongoing cash payments, declining with mortality.
  • Mortality: use a standard generational mortality table — typical life expectancy at 65: men to ~84, women to ~87.
  • Indexation: an inflation adjustment; in many jurisdictions a statutory review obligation (e.g. every 3 years). Assumption often 1.5–2.0% p.a.
  • Discount rate: market-based; IFRS uses the current AA corporate-bond yield (5–10y duration matching). Discounting: the PV of the future cash flows = DBO (defined benefit obligation).
  • Funding status: DBO − plan assets = net liability.
  • Sensitivity: a 1% rise in the discount rate = a 12–18% DBO reduction.
Deep diveShow more details

"Pensions are often the biggest 'hidden liability' in middle-market industrial valuations — a full 30-year model is DD standard, not an approximation."