Module II· Valuation — Regional NotesAdvanced
Question
How do you model a defined-benefit pension obligation profile over 30 years for a valuation?
Answer
Pension cash-flow model:
- Split the population: active members (still accruing), deferred vested (left with a preserved entitlement), pensioners (in payment).
- Cash-flow projection: active members generate future service cost (working lifetime). Deferred vested: no service cost, but indexation. Pensioners: ongoing cash payments, declining with mortality.
- Mortality: use a standard generational mortality table — typical life expectancy at 65: men to ~84, women to ~87.
- Indexation: an inflation adjustment; in many jurisdictions a statutory review obligation (e.g. every 3 years). Assumption often 1.5–2.0% p.a.
- Discount rate: market-based; IFRS uses the current AA corporate-bond yield (5–10y duration matching). Discounting: the PV of the future cash flows = DBO (defined benefit obligation).
- Funding status: DBO − plan assets = net liability.
- Sensitivity: a 1% rise in the discount rate = a 12–18% DBO reduction.
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Pitch tip
"Pensions are often the biggest 'hidden liability' in middle-market industrial valuations — a full 30-year model is DD standard, not an approximation."