Module II· DCF — Terminal ValueIntermediate
Question

How do you choose the perpetual growth rate g for Gordon Growth?

Answer

the nominal long-run GDP growth rate. Developed markets: ~2.0–2.5% (1.5% real + 1.5–2% inflation). Rationale: a company cannot grow faster than the economy forever (otherwise it would eventually exceed 100% of GDP). Lower bound: inflation, about 1.5%. Sector differentiation: growth sectors (tech, healthcare) at the upper bound; mature/declining sectors (print, coal) at or below inflation. IB standard: discipline — a 1.5–2.5% range, don't get 'creative'. A g of 3.0%+ immediately draws critical senior questions in the pitch.

Deep diveShow more details

'I use 2.0% — it matches the central bank's inflation target and implies no real market-share gain.'