How do you analyze accretion/dilution in an M&A deal from the acquirer's perspective?
measures whether a deal raises the acquirer's pro-forma EPS (accretive) or lowers it (dilutive).
```
Pro-forma EPS = (Acquirer NI + Target NI + after-tax synergies − after-tax financing costs) / pro-forma share count
Accretion = Pro-forma EPS / standalone EPS − 1
```
- Target earnings yield vs. acquirer cost of capital.
- Financing mix: cash pulls lost interest income out of the synergy pot, debt creates interest expense, stock dilutes via new shares.
- Synergy realization.
A stock deal with acquirer P/E > target P/E is accretive; a cash deal is accretive when the interest cost is below the target earnings yield. For investment-grade acquirers (cost of debt 4%, target earnings yield 8%), a cash deal delivers about 2–4% accretion in year 1.
goodwill amortization (local GAAP; IFRS is impairment-only), restructuring costs in years 1–2, FX translation.
Deep diveShow more details
'Accretion 1.0% year 1' is the standard headline — every MD looks here first. But 'year-3 run-rate accretion' is the more honest metric.