Module II· Trading ComparablesIntermediate
Question
How do you adjust comps when the target grows markedly differently from the comp group?
Answer
Growth adjustments:
- PEG ratio: P/E divided by the growth rate — comparable companies should have similar PEGs.
- Growth−multiple regression: regress the multiple against the growth rate across the comp set, then project the target onto the regression line.
- Qualitative adjustment: if the target grows 3% and the median comp grows 8%, a multiple discount of −1.0x to −2.0x. Pitfall: the multiple's sensitivity to growth is non-linear — the value uplift from 5% to 10% is larger than from 10% to 15%.
Deep diveShow more details
Pitch tip
'Target grows 4% vs. comp median 7% — we adjust the multiple −0.8x based on the sector's historical multiple-vs-growth regression.'