Module VI· Sensitivity & Scenario AnalysisAdvanced
Question
How do you model Monte Carlo simulation in Excel without add-ins?
Answer
Use RAND or NORM.INV/RAND to generate random inputs, run many rows of simulated assumptions, and calculate outputs for each row. Summarize mean, median, percentile outcomes, and downside cases. Without add-ins it is manual and can be slow, but useful for simple risk ranges. Keep assumptions transparent and avoid false precision.