Module I· Cash Flow Statement ConstructionAdvanced
Question
What are the quality-of-earnings red flags in the cash flow statement?
Answer
Mechanics
Standard red flags that DD teams check systematically:
- OCF grows slower than net income over several years — signals decaying earnings quality (e.g. an AR build-up to manipulate revenue).
- High working-capital volatility with no seasonality explanation — possible period-end balance-sheet optimization.
- Capex < maintenance-capex threshold (rule of thumb: < 80% of D&A at industrials) — short-term cash optimization at the expense of the asset base.
- A growing share of 'other operating activities' in OCF — a catch-all line, often opaque non-cash items.
- Aggressive capitalization of R&D or software costs — shifts expense from the income statement into capex, an artificial boost to EBITDA and OCF.
- Reverse factoring (supplier-financing programs) — can inflate AP artificially and inflate OCF without being immediately disclosed as debt.
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Pitch tip
In M&A pitches, treat quality of earnings (QoE) as a separate workstream — typically run by a Big Four firm or a QoE specialist (Alvarez & Marsal, FTI). Adjustments of 5–15% of reported EBITDA are normal.